Decision Making & Negotiations

This article introduces the method of single-neuron recording in humans to marketing and consumer researchers. First, the authors provide a general description of this methodology, discuss its advantages and disadvantages, and describe findings from previous single-neuron human research. Second, they discuss the relevance of this method for marketing and consumer behavior and, more specifically, how it can be used to gain insights into the areas of categorization, sensory discrimination, reactions to novel versus familiar stimuli, and recall of experiences.

In a recent statement, the American Statistical Association (ASA) discusses the use of value-added measurement to evaluate teacher quality. We present our views on the issues raised by the ASA, in light of research we and others have done on this subject. We highlight areas of agreement with the ASA statement, clarify which issues raised by the ASA have been largely resolved, and point to those issues which should be a priority for future research.

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns, economic activity and financial instability.

Purchase intentions are frequently measured and used by marketing managers as an input for decisions about new and existing products and services. Purchase intentions are correlated and predict future sales, but do so imperfectly. I review and summarize research on the relationship between purchase intentions and sales that has been conducted over the past 60 years. This review offers insights into how best to measure purchase intentions, how to forecast sales from purchase intentions measures, and why purchase intentions do not always translate into sales.

Just as we have learned a great deal in consumer psychology by focusing on understanding how different sub-groups of humans think, this paper suggests that we can also learn from examining how different types of animals think. To that end, this manuscript offers a review of literature on topics in animal cognition that have also been investigated by consumer researchers.

This paper investigates the impact of lower mortgage rates on household balance sheets and other economic outcomes during the housing crisis. We use proprietary loan-level panel data matched to consumer credit records using borrowers' Social Security numbers, which allows for accurate measurement of the effects. Our main focus is on borrowers with agency loans, which constitute the vast majority of U.S. mortgage borrowers.

We investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs by defaulting on their mortgages. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by U.S. state government lawsuits against Countrywide Financial Corporation, which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers with subprime mortgages throughout the country. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that Countrywide's relative delinquency rate increased more than ten percent per month immediately after the program's announcement.

Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014)[CFR] evaluate the degree of bias in teacher value-added (VA) estimates using a “teacher switching” research design, regressing changes in mean test scores across cohorts on changes in mean teacher VA. Recent studies (Kane, Staiger, and Bacher-Hicks 2014, Rothstein 2014) have found that regressing changes in mean scores in the prior grade on changes in mean VA also yields a positive coefficient, a result we confirm in our data.

This research examines how oral haptics (due to hardness/softness or roughness/smoothness) related to foods influence mastication (i.e., degree of chewing) and orosensory perception (i.e., orally perceived fattiness), which in turn influence calorie estimation, subsequent food choices, and overall consumption volume. The results of five experimental studies show that, consistent with theories related to mastication and orosensory perception, oral haptics related to soft (vs. hard) and smooth (vs. rough) foods lead to higher calorie estimations.