Decision Making & Negotiations

This article analyzes the hedging potential of real estate and especially looks at the impact of lease contracts in various countries around the world on the inflation hedge capability for both expected and unexpected inflation. The dataset consists of direct real estate rent and capital value data for 59 cities/MSAs in 25 countries between 1991 and 2020 to make international comparison over a long time period possible. The results indicate that real estate is a good hedge against inflation, and especially against unexpected inflation.

A board should be at the helm of any family business, steering the business in the right direction. If you wish to have a business that is resilient and has a positive impact on all stakeholders (e.g., employees, customers, vendors, and society) you must make sure your board is intact and functioning optimally. This article offers some questions to consider as you develop best practices for your own board, such as who should be on the board, whether you need an independent director, and how often your board should meet.

Recently, defaults have become celebrated as a low-cost and easy-to-implement nudge for promoting positive outcomes, both at an individual and societal level. In the present research, we conducted a large-scale field experiment (N = 32,508) in an educational context to test the effectiveness of a default intervention in promoting participation in a potentially beneficial achievement test. We found that a default manipulation increased the rate at which high school students registered to take the test but failed to produce a significant change in students’ actual rate of test-taking.

Asymmetric information can distort market outcomes. I study how the online disclosure of information affects consumers’ behavior and firms’ incentives to upgrade product quality in markets where information is traditionally limited. I first build a model of consumer search with firms’ endogenous quality decisions. In this model, lower search costs reallocate demand toward higher-quality producers, raising firms’ incentives to upgrade quality, and more so for firms selling ex-ante lower-quality products.

As financial technology improves and data becomes more abundant, do market prices reflect this growing information and allocate capital more efficiently? While a number of recent studies have documented rises in aggregate price efficiency, we show that there are large cross-sectional differences. The previously-documented increases are driven by a rise in the informativeness of large, growth stocks. The informational efficiency of smaller assets' prices or prices of assets with less growth potential are either flat or declining.

Higher U.S. government debt/output ratios do not forecast higher future surpluses or lower real returns on Treasurys. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current debt/output ratio. The market valuation of Treasurys is surprisingly insensitive to the macro fundamentals. Instead, the future debt/output ratio accounts for most of the variation. Systematic surplus forecast errors may help to account for these findings. Since the start of the GFC, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize.

We analyze the impact of the Second Avenue Subway (Q-train) construction on local real estate prices, which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find evidence of higher real estate prices in the vicinity of areas served by the new Q-train, relative to other areas in Manhattan's Upper East Side. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway leads is captured through property taxes, and is insufficient to cover the cost of the subway. Value capture through targeted property tax increases can help close the funding gap.

As unfunded pension liabilities grow, governments experiment with ways to curb costs. We examine the effect of a representative cost-cutting reform on the retention and productivity of workers. The reform reduced pension annuities and increased penalties for early retirement, projected to save 8 percent of revenues. We leverage administrative records and a discontinuity in the reform to estimate its effect on labor supply. The reform slightly increased worker retention, and we can rule out small attrition effects. The reform had no effect on worker output.